Wine’s taste may be bottled poetry, but its mathematics are often merciless. The U.S. government has implemented 15 percent tariffs on all European Union wines. Add on a 15 percent decline in the dollar versus the euro since January, and French wines are potentially 30 percent more expensive the moment they arrive on American shores, and their importers need to pay the customs duties.
That equation threatens to sever one of wine’s most enduring love affairs—that between French producers and American consumers. French winemakers—from small wineries to large négociants, from Champagne to Roussillon—are having to calculate whether they can stay afloat with this new math.
“All the planets are aligned, but in the wrong way,” says Jean-Christophe Meyrou. As general manager of Vignobles K, Meyrou oversees 156 acres of vines and six Right Bank estates, including the newly elevated Grand Cru Classé Tour St.-Christophe. Roughly 25 percent of Vignobles K’s sales come from the U.S. market, which means these tariffs aren’t just numbers. They’re the “straw that could break the camel’s back,” he says.
The stress resonates across France’s diverse terroirs. In Burgundy’s Volnay, American expat Mark O’Connell of Domaine Clos de la Chapelle is watching his $100 bottles potentially jump to $130. “We crave certainty,” he says. Roughly one-third of his 2,000-case production—split between Chardonnay and Pinot Noir—goes to the U.S., his most critical market.
Tariffs Are Not the Only Pressure
In the Rhône Valley, Michel Chapoutier, the iconic founder of Maison M. Chapoutier, which produces more than 800,000 cases of biodynamic wines annually, delivers the harsh truth with Gallic precision: “French winemakers cannot be expected to lower their prices to offset this.”
As president of the Union des Maisons & Marques de Vin (UMVIN), an umbrella of trade groups representing 80 percent of France’s wine production, Chapoutier isn’t just speaking about his own profit margins. He knows what other wineries face too. In France, he explains, “When we pay €3,000 to a worker, we give €3,000 to the state”—a tax burden that leaves little margin for swallowing added costs. His voice echoes the fears of families whose livelihoods hang in the balance.
The crisis hits hardest at wines sold for under €3 to €4 before markup. There is almost no profit margin to sacrifice to help importers cover the cost of the tariffs, and these are wines whose low prices are a major selling point. Raise them, and they become far less competitive. Post-COVID production costs for wineries surged 20 to 30 percent—bottles, labels, electricity—while interest rates for financing climbed from below 1 percent to 4 percent.
Francine Picard of Famille Picard, which farms 336 acres organically in Burgundy for several labels, fears for wines in middle price categories. With the U.S. representing nearly 30 percent of her market, she sees American middle-class consumers, already economically pressed, abandoning Burgundy for alternatives. “Buyers say Burgundy pricing is so high—so they’ll shift to other regions such as the Loire.”
Behind the romance of French wine lies the brutal arithmetic of American distribution. Picard points out that major retailer chains “may prioritize profitability over regional loyalty.” She worries that if margins erode, these gatekeepers might shift toward other wine regions, effectively closing the American market regardless of consumer preference.
Mother Nature is adding another challenge—a changing climate. Chapoutier says 2024’s “very warm and dry weather” yielded smaller vintages in many areas, leaving producers with less wine to sell and less room for economic pain. And longterm climate shifts are forcing producers to think about costly changes to how they farm—even as some producers are investing in sustainability just as tariffs strike. “It’s the art of adapting to the capriciousness of climate and consumers’ changing tastes while preserving wine identity,” said Chapoutier.
[article-img-container][src=2025-09/ns_michel-chapoutier-tariffs-090925_1600.jpg] [caption= Michel Chapoutier is shifting exports away from the United States and toward other markets, including Canada.] [credit= (Courtesy of M. Chapoutier) ] [alt= Michel Chapoutier of Maison M. Chapoutier.][end: article-img-container]
Shifting to Other Markets
To survive, wineries may need to ship less wine to America and find new overseas markets. Chapoutier champions Canada, where the Canada–European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has nearly eliminated tariffs and bureaucracy. “The business with French wines and Canada is stronger and stronger,” he said. He also points to emerging South American markets. The U.S. has slipped from first to fifth among his export markets.
Picard and her brother Gabriel have tried to compensate by focusing on 10 other markets, including South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, India and several nations in Africa and Europe. The changing nature of the U.S. tariffs this year has made that market too unpredictable. “It’s hard to plan,” she said. “Businesses require long-term vision and therefore a certain amount of market predictability.”
Some wineries are trimming their margins to partially cover the costs. O’Connell negotiates delicate balances, offering importers “a little bit of a discount for a short time” while knowing “the ultimate customer will pay a little more.”
O’Connell, straddling both worlds as an American in Burgundy, says it’s a delicate dance. “It’s easier to keep a customer than get a new one,” he said. Yet keeping customers requires navigating between producers protecting margins, distributors demanding discounts and consumers facing sticker shock.
Decades of Work
French winemakers have cultivated American palates for generations and fear that work will now be lost. Meyrou recalls recent visitors from Texas and New York who, despite knowing about impending tariffs, bought cases without hesitation. “They said, OK, it’s going to turn 15 percent, yeah no problem, we’ll buy it,” he said. He hopes that wine tourism—which generates 20 to 25 percent of Vignobles K’s revenue—may prove a crucial lifeline.
O’Connell believes consumer behavior will shift dramatically across price points. Where a customer might typically buy six bottles, “now they’ll only buy three,” as desire meets the reality of household budgets. And there are fewer customers. For the loyal clientele that O’Connell has cultivated, he observes the segmentation. “Luxury buyers remain loyal,” he said. “Price-sensitive buyers switch.”
Few people get into wine dreaming of huge profits. As Picard notes, “People are always smiling when they talk about wine. It’s a magic product.” But that enthusiasm may be sorely tested in the next year as the new math takes effect.
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